dc.contributor.author	Shinkarenko, Volodymyr
dc.contributor.author	Hostryk, Alexey
dc.contributor.author	Shynkarenko, Larysa
dc.contributor.author	Dolinskyi, Leonid
dc.date.accessioned	2021-09-08T13:37:55Z
dc.date.available	2021-09-08T13:37:55Z
dc.date.issued	2021-05-24
dc.identifier.citation	Shinkarenko V. A forecasting the consumer price index using time series model / Volodymyr Shinkarenko, Alexey Hostryk, Larysa Shynkarenko and Leonid Dolinskyi // SHS Web of Conferences. - 2020. - Vol. 107. - Article 10002.	uk
dc.identifier.issn	2261-2424
dc.identifier.uri	https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202110710002
dc.identifier.uri	http://elibrary.kdpu.edu.ua/xmlui/handle/123456789/4489
dc.description.abstract	This article examines the behavior of the consumer price index in Ukraine for the period from January 2010 to September 2020. The characteristics of the initial time series, the analysis of autocorrelation functions made it possible to reveal the tendency of their development and the presence of annual seasonality. To model the behavior of the consumer price index and forecast for the next months, two types of models were used: the additive ARIMA*ARIMAS model, better known as the model of Box-Jenkins and the exponential smoothing model with the seasonality estimate of Holt-Winters. As a result of using the STATISTICA package, the most adequate models were built, reflecting the monthly dynamics of the consumer price index in Ukraine. The inflation forecast was carried out on the basis of the Holt-Winters model, which has a minimum error.	uk
dc.language.iso	en	uk
dc.publisher	EDP Sciences	uk
dc.title	A forecasting the consumer price index using time series model	uk
dc.type	Article	uk