Modeling of integration processes of Ukraine to EU using random matrix theory

Abstract

The paper deals with the processes of integration of Ukraine into the integration group, since the possibility of joining the European Union can have a powerful impact on the socio-economic processes of the country. In particular, Ukraine's foreign trade activity is considered, which plays a leading role in the country's foreign economic activity. In this paper, the theory of random matrices is proposed as a tool for analysis, since it will allow to obtain numerical estimates of a stationary system. Based on the results of the application of this tool, a graphoanalytic analysis of the foreign economic activity of Ukraine for the period since 2001 has been conducted. 26 product groups exported by Ukraine and European countries were analyzed. According to the results of the calculations and analysis, it is revealed that Ukraine either follows the overall market dynamics or has some influence on the European market. This leads to the conclusion about the symbiosis of Ukraine and other market objects. In addition, Ukraine was found to be in the group of major suppliers of raw materials for the group ofproducts "wood and wood products" and "paper and its derivatives". By individual productgroups, Ukraine is in the same cluster with powerful European countries, such as Germany, the United Kingdom and others. For inorganic chemistry products, Ukraine is in the same cluster with Poland. Ukraine is the center of a separate cluster for the Iron and Steel Goods Group. Thus, applying the theory of random matrices allows us to identify clusters for certain groups ofgoods, the vertices of these clusters. According to the analysis, we can conclude that Ukrainehas a close relationship with other entities in the European region, and by some categories of goods is a determining player in the European market. However, we believe that it is appropriate for Ukraine to transition from the export of raw materials and primary processing products to the production and export of processing industry products to the European market. This will help to increase revenues to the state budget and help create additional jobs in the internal labor market.