Casual analysis of financial and operational risks of oil and gas companies in condition of emergent economy

Abstract

Abstract. The need to control the risk that accompanies businesses in their day- to-day operations, and at the same time changing economic conditions make risk management an almost indispensable element of economic life. Selection of the main aspects of the selected phases of the risk management process: risk identification and risk assessment are related to their direct relationship with the subject matter (risk identification to be managed; risk analysis leading to the establishment of a risk hierarchy, and, consequently, the definition of risk control’ methods) and its purpose (bringing the risk to acceptable level). It is impossible to identify the basic patterns of development of the oil and gas industry without exploring the relationship between economic processes and enterprise risks. The latter are subject to simulation, and based on models it is possible to determine with certain probability whether there have been qualitative and quantitative changes in the processes, in their mutual influence on each other, etc. The work is devoted to exploring the possibilities of applying the Granger test to examine the causal relationship between the risks and obligations of oil and gas companies. The analysis is based on statistical tests and the use of linear regression models.